Over analyzing...

Now that the hard part is over. Now that the mileage has added up and I have done the speedwork and long runs is the time where I get sneaky. How can I creep over the finish line without hurting? How can I meet my expectations and show the promise to get my BQ in 2011? Do I have the guts and fitness to break 3:30 at the MCM?

In 2010 I ran the Cherry Blossom 10-miler in 1:12:57 and the Armed Forces 5k in 21:06. These times suggest that I can run between 3:22 and 3:24 according to the Runner's World Training Calculator. In my previous two marathons I ran only one twenty mile training run each. For this marathon I have attempted four 20-milers (with on 19.28 mile DNF). I trained 17 weeks/424.01 miles for my first marathon (Frederick 2009), 15 weeks/468.11 miles for my second (Baltimore 2009), and Marine Corps Marathon 2010 will end after 17 weeks/568.31 miles.

Weeks	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	Total
Fred2009	16.23	19.05	22.91	19.02	25.82	27.42	22.38	7.61	32	29.4	39.26	38.77	33.14	31.63	29.22	21.01	9.14	424.01
Balt2009	24.01	36.37	37.83	30.31	38.51	31.01	35.09	35.09	35.85	29.84	41.04	41.01	27.01	17.09	8.05			468.11
MCM2010	21.04	8.02	24.06	19.21	25.32	41	41.2	46.08	47.6	48.06	35.35	35.87	57.2	37.66	43.64	25*	12*	568.31

I weigh about the same as last year when I ran Baltimore (approximately 185 lbs). I guess that the only thing I can say is that I am still training hard. I have more race experience and I have been running one year longer than the last marathon. I gave myself 3 years to qualify for Boston (3:15:59). I want to get this marathon under 3:30, I'll take a PR of 3:45, but I must that that would be disappointing. I've got two weeks of tapering left and I plan on keeping sharp with two tempo sessions: first a 5 miles at 7:23, second 4 miles at 7:28.

More ruminations to come...

Week 17 recap - Schedule change leads to dead legs on the 20 mile slogfest

Schedule change have me seriously altering my training plan for the first time in the MCM build-up. I will have my lowest mileage week in quite some time, but I went out yesterday to keep the long run streak alive. My training 6 weeks out from the marathon went like this:

• Monday: rest
• Tuesday: 8 miles at easy run pace 8:34/mile
• Wednesday: Speedwork - 7 mile tempo run at 8:04/mile (off my goal of 7:36/mile)
• Thursday: rest
• Friday: Long run - 19.28 at 9:49/mile (way off my goal of 8:46/mile)
• Saturday: rest
• Sunday: rest

Weekly total: 35.35 miles

I tried to run a new route on at a different time than my normal long run time (11:30 am as opposed to 6:00 am) on a different day - too much change. I had to move my long run or likely not do it at all, which would've probably been a worse choice. Because of the time I ended up running it was full 85 F degrees so a slower than expected time was already expected. However, I was unprepared for the complete deadness of legs I developed around mile 14.

Mile 1 - 8:10, Mile 2 - 8:34, Mile 3 - 8:36, Mile 4 - 9:20, Mile 5 - 9:03, Mile 6 - 8:45, Mile 7 - 9:13, Mile 8 - 08:54, Mile 9 - 08:55, Mile 10 - 08:42, Mile 11 - 09:18, Mile 12 - 10:10, Mile 13 - 09:35, Mile 14 - 10:59, Mile 15 - 11:53, Mile 16 - 11:33, Mile 17 - 10:54, Mile 18 - 11:02, Mile 19 - 12:58, Mile 20 - 09:20

My back was a little unhappy with the amount of sidewalk running I did. Believe it or not the concrete sidewalk is a lot more hard to run on than asphalt. Other than that my slow down was merely a lack of energy. I willed myself to go faster several time from mile 16 on, but I couldn't go more than a few steps before I slowed to walking again. This kind of positive split cannot happen on marathon day. I will have to learn to conserve more energy at the beginning.

I did two laps of Lake Artemesia and College Park, which caused me to run through the Greenbelt Metro station twice. I guarantee the people there saw more strange things than a sweaty, salt-caked, shirtless man wandering around the train station, but I few crazy looks.

Oh well... not the performance I was looking for, but I learned a few lessons. One, if it is hot when the marathon is going on I will have to adjust my expectations. Two, NEGATIVE SPLITS! I have to save the energy to have more left in the second half than the first half.