Over analyzing...

Now that the hard part is over. Now that the mileage has added up and I have done the speedwork and long runs is the time where I get sneaky. How can I creep over the finish line without hurting? How can I meet my expectations and show the promise to get my BQ in 2011? Do I have the guts and fitness to break 3:30 at the MCM?

In 2010 I ran the Cherry Blossom 10-miler in 1:12:57 and the Armed Forces 5k in 21:06. These times suggest that I can run between 3:22 and 3:24 according to the Runner's World Training Calculator. In my previous two marathons I ran only one twenty mile training run each. For this marathon I have attempted four 20-milers (with on 19.28 mile DNF). I trained 17 weeks/424.01 miles for my first marathon (Frederick 2009), 15 weeks/468.11 miles for my second (Baltimore 2009), and Marine Corps Marathon 2010 will end after 17 weeks/568.31 miles.

Weeks	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	Total
Fred2009	16.23	19.05	22.91	19.02	25.82	27.42	22.38	7.61	32	29.4	39.26	38.77	33.14	31.63	29.22	21.01	9.14	424.01
Balt2009	24.01	36.37	37.83	30.31	38.51	31.01	35.09	35.09	35.85	29.84	41.04	41.01	27.01	17.09	8.05			468.11
MCM2010	21.04	8.02	24.06	19.21	25.32	41	41.2	46.08	47.6	48.06	35.35	35.87	57.2	37.66	43.64	25*	12*	568.31

I weigh about the same as last year when I ran Baltimore (approximately 185 lbs). I guess that the only thing I can say is that I am still training hard. I have more race experience and I have been running one year longer than the last marathon. I gave myself 3 years to qualify for Boston (3:15:59). I want to get this marathon under 3:30, I'll take a PR of 3:45, but I must that that would be disappointing. I've got two weeks of tapering left and I plan on keeping sharp with two tempo sessions: first a 5 miles at 7:23, second 4 miles at 7:28.

More ruminations to come...